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Friday, October 16, 2009

I just got the most intellectual spam message I have ever received.
The point of the email is to try and get me to go and play at an
online casino. This approach is to give me a "fool proof" strategy
for playing roulette. It reads, in part:


"bet $1 on black if it goes black you win $1

now again bet $1 on black, if it goes red bet $3 on black, if it goes
red again bet $8 on black, if red again bet $20 on black, red again
bet $52 on black (always multiple you previous lost bet around 2.5),
if now is black you win $52 so you have $104 and you bet:

$1 + $3 + $8 + $20 + $52 = $84 So you just won $20 :)"


The theory being...it has to go to black eventually. Is it a fool proof strategy for roulette?

Obviously not. Right off the bat, Roulette has two green squares. Therefore, the odds of red v. black are not 50/50. But if the odds were 50/50? What then?

Then, for the strategy to work, you would need infinite money to begin with. The strategy assumes you have the $104 to make the next bet. Probably a good assumption, but on a run of 20 red your final bet would be $37,000,000. ...probably a bad assumption. On a run of 30 red, your final bet would be $350 Billion (give or take).

What if you limit your losses? ...say you don't bet more then $100? ...well, if the odds are 50/50 then there is no real point in playing anyway.

I hate the way businesses profit on people who are bad at math. If you think this lesson is obvious then consider the spread betting market. How is it different?

As Joshua said: "The only winning move is not to play." :-)


Nice! And the final Joshua saying: brilliant.

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