<body><script type="text/javascript"> function setAttributeOnload(object, attribute, val) { if(window.addEventListener) { window.addEventListener('load', function(){ object[attribute] = val; }, false); } else { window.attachEvent('onload', function(){ object[attribute] = val; }); } } </script> <div id="navbar-iframe-container"></div> <script type="text/javascript" src="https://apis.google.com/js/plusone.js"></script> <script type="text/javascript"> gapi.load("gapi.iframes:gapi.iframes.style.bubble", function() { if (gapi.iframes && gapi.iframes.getContext) { gapi.iframes.getContext().openChild({ url: 'https://www.blogger.com/navbar.g?targetBlogID\x3d6566853\x26blogName\x3d1%25+inspiration\x26publishMode\x3dPUBLISH_MODE_BLOGSPOT\x26navbarType\x3dBLUE\x26layoutType\x3dCLASSIC\x26searchRoot\x3dhttp://patke.blogspot.com/search\x26blogLocale\x3den\x26v\x3d2\x26homepageUrl\x3dhttp://patke.blogspot.com/\x26vt\x3d8220196945898414734', where: document.getElementById("navbar-iframe-container"), id: "navbar-iframe" }); } }); </script>
Archives
Subscribe


Friday, November 19, 2004

I will continue the biology rant next week, but another idea and had my head going for the past few days. Basically, there are 3 major trends in computing at the moment:

1) Open source. Microsoft is still the overwhelming leader...but - and I hate to say it - they have not been innovating fast enough. Open source is catching up awfully fast and is becoming a trend the will really effect IT in the future.

2) Distributed computing. Rather broad, I know. When I say distributed computing I mean computing "away from the OS" via a browser or smart client or whatever (cell phone, pda, browser, ...even a tablet pc to a degree). Something that accesses a web services (some service exposed over HTTP).

3) Social networking software. Online communities. Since I have been using an aggregator, I hardly get any information from "the web" anymore. I tend to get it from individuals who think like me - only better. In a sense, I have formed a "personal community" around the individuals I read. ...and I am certain that I am not the only one.

Also on this point is Amazon. Have you seen the Amazon "market place"? I find that about 70% of my new orders on Amazon are actually through other businesses exposed to me though Amazon. The kicker is that I would NOT buy from the businesses regularly because I do not trust "tomsbooksinstuff.com". I trust them through amazon because 1) 4,568 users have rated the company 4.5 stars. 2) Amazon's business is NOTHING if users do not trust the site.

"The rise of the importance of trust in the online world" might be a better description for point three then "social networking software". Trust has always been important. Always. But in the online world, billion dollar businesses are being built solely around the idea (Google, Amazon, Ebay).

The point of listing these trends is that I see an obvious conversion point that is going to happen in the next few (5) years.

Basically the future is:

1) Microsoft will begin to lose market share to open source software. Even when Avalon comes out (finally) Microsoft will still need to persuade customers to upgrade. ...and why upgrade when 2000 and Red Hat do everything I need. The erosion of market share will be slow and non-devastating to MSFT's business. I say non-devastating because MSFT still has the best OS in the world - and the software is not where the cost is. Cost is in maintenance and development.

As we move away from a desktop, we move increasingly toward a "dumb client - always connected" model. We have a way to go before we completely move away from the desktop - largely because we like keyboards - but we will get there. Nobody really likes sitting in front of a computer all day.

"dumb client - always connected" sounds a lot like a cell phone to me. The cell phone is the ipod killer. Soon you will see cell phones with GB hard drives. Take a photo, dictate a message, and upload it to your GMail account for google to index / expose to the web. (btw: GMail = Linux) I truly think an Apple / Nokia merger / partnership is a fantastic idea for Apple.

Finally - and the bit that makes me happiest - we will see a move towards communities. People are getting so much information that they don't know who to trust. If I buy a book in a store, I can see it. Hold it in my hands and inspect it. Online, everything is an unknown - what if the book has a torn page? We will form circles of people / companies that we trust...and people / companies that we do not trust.

I was listening to a broadcast (podcast) the other day and someone said something to the effect of "I don't need to search for information because everything important will just bubble up." I couldn't disagree more. The only things that bubble all the way up are the things that interest the masses - Michael Jackson's new nose, Bill Clinton's sex life, etc. However, we all have our own interest and hobbies. We will need to find our own personal groups and monitor those (small, personal) groups to ensure the important things "bubble up to us".

btw: This post is an amalgamation of information I have gathered from participating in my "personal groups". I have posted it because maybe seeing this information posted "like this" will help someone.


Permalink
Comments: Post a Comment